August: the beginning of the retreat from Russia
15.10.2024
Based on the latest customs data for August 2024, it was possible to observe a long-awaited decrease in LPG imports from Russia due to the approach of the effective date of entry into force of the sanctions. The share of Russian gas in the structure of Polish imports fell in August from about 50% to 37.5% on a monthly basis. It is worth emphasizing that this significant drop in Russian imports has already been discounted in the retail prices of LPG in Poland, which have increased by about 15 gr since July.
In August, the entrepreneurs imported 75 thousand tons of LPG of Russian origin to Poland. This is the least since May 2022, immediately after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and ¼ less than in July this year.
The second largest supplier to the Polish market has remained unchanged since 2020 Sweden (in August - 19.5%), and in third place with a record high share of 10%, it strengthened Norwaywhich is currently expanding its export capacity. August data prove that Russian gas will not be replaced on the Polish market by one supplier, but rather diversified supplies from Norway, UK. Great Britain, Germany, USA and other destinations. In particular, the United States, by far the largest producer in the world, currently has a surplus of LPG, and new investments are underway that will make it possible to increase exports of this raw material from 2026.
Consistently, the largest amount of LPG arrives in Poland by rail - in August it was 53%. 35% of LPG arrived at domestic terminals by sea, which reflects the increase in deliveries from Norway and other Western European countries, and 11% crossed the border by tankers.
The change in the directions of supply brought interesting changes in the customs classification of imported products: in August, the share in the import structure of the propane-butane mixture (CN271119), the most important product imported so far from Russia, decreased. On the other hand, the proportion of butanes (CN271113) has increased: from an average level of about 7-8% in the last year to close to 15%. The largest share of imports in August was propane (42.4%). 8% in the structure of imports have saturated aliphatic hydrocarbons (including isobutane and n-butane), which were exempted from sanctions by the decision of the European Council. This means that after the effective entry into force of sanctions on LPG from the Russian direction, this faction will still be able to be imported from the east.
Ukraine remains the largest recipient of LPG shipped from Poland abroad with a 60% share, but the volume of re-exports decreased by 40% compared to last year. Total exports of the raw material in the 8 months of 2024 reached 285 thousand tons (470 thousand tons in 2023), and to Ukraine - 173 thousand tons (280 thousand tons in 2023). The decline in re-exports may play a significant role in stabilizing the market after the entry into force of the embargo on LPG of Russian origin in December 2024. A decrease of 190 thousand tons of re-exports means that so much more gas is left in Poland, which is important for mitigating the effects of the elimination of Russian gas from the Polish market.
Conclusions for consumers
The new data indicate that expectations for autogas price increases in the winter may have been overestimated and the effects of the embargo on consumers will be less than originally expected. This scenario is also favored by the situation on global markets - a cheaper dollar and weak economic conditions in China, the largest importer of liquefied gas in the world, favor a drop in LPG prices over the next year. As a result, as in previous years, autogas will remain the most attractive transport fuel in Poland in 2025.
